Will Anwar Succeed In Forming The Next Government?

We all know by now how Anwar has targeted September 16 as the date of his take over of the Federal Government. As the date approached, most Malaysians at that time were wondering whether he could really achieve this target, though by now we realise it just remained and unfulfilled ambition of the opposition leader. When the target date arrived, instead of announcing his victory, Anwar was only able to repeat his earlier claims of floor crossing by 30 or so Barisan Nasional MPs, and what was even more unexpected, he even turned his aggressive tone to something more conciliatory, asking to meet the Prime Minister, instead, for what he claimed to be a talk for peaceful and orderly transition of the government. This was indeed an anticlimax after months of humiliating and tough talks against Pak Lah and his government. Somewhat Anwar’s credibility has been tainted in the eyes of the public.

Now, after the event, Anwar and his wife continue to claim more support from Barisan Nasional MPs, but this time more and more people have grown skeptical to these claims. Even his partners in pakatan Rakyat do not appear enthusiastic about it all along.

What is open to question is, why did Anwar fail to announce the cross over list in spite of repeated challenges to do so by the Prime Minister and the press. I can only think any one of the following possible reasons:

1. Anwar was not actually confident that the MPs in the cross over list would honour their pledge to him.It would have been a fiasco if a few of them deny any involvement, after the list is made known to the public;

2. The list likely comprises mainly non Bumiputera/ Non Muslim MPs, a situation that may easily be interpreted as Non Bumiputera attempts to topple the legitimate Bumiputera based government of the day.

3. The list did not exist, at least in the the purported number of 30 MPs as Anwar claimed. In such a case he was probably hoping for additional MPs to join on the bandwagon;

4. The MP’s in the list were probably scared of subsequent actions by the government, should the takeover attempt fail. Anticorruption charges could be instituted against them if there are proof of corruptions. After all the Pakatan Rakyat, if they are really true to their words, should only form a government with a clean and transparent foundation, and not tainted with suspected corruptions, personal inducement for rewards and betrayals.

Since this involves betrayal of the votes’ mandate I am very surprised if DAP and PAS, known for their high moral standards, will bless the formation of such a government.

Anwar may be able to convince the people if he could announce the so called ‘list of MP crossover’ followed by public confirmation by those in the list. Even such a list will not be adequate by itself, as it cannot be assumed that all the Pakatan MPs support Anwar. It is likely that PAS, or at least most of PAS MPs will not spport the vote of no confidence against Pak Lah.

For these reasons, the way to topple a sitting government is not by showing any list of crossover, but should only be done by vote of no confidence in Parliament as provided for in the Federal Constitution.

The ultimatum dates set by Anwar on September 16 and 23, are not realistic and are only meant to appease and keep his supporters in high spirit. I believe Anwar himself is aware such dates are impossible keep in view of legislative constraints. It even sounds weird for him to ask the Prime Minister to rush a special Parliamentary session just for the purpose of toppling the later. No Prime Minister in his right frame of mind will agree to it, after all Anwar does not need to wait long for the October session to try it.

The fact is that Anwar is not able to garner enough support to topple the Barisan Nasional government. for the following reasons:

Firstly, Anwar is not able to get enough support of Malay/Muslim MPs from Barisan Nasional. As it is todate, Pakatan Rakyat has a total of 82 MPs, of which 43 are Malay/Muslim and 39 are non Bumiputera. Anwar will need 30 MPs to cross over, of which at least 14 ought to be Malay/Muslim in order to maintain Malay/Muslim majortity in his government, otherwise Pakatan Rakyat will be controlled by non Bumiputera/non Muslims, a situation not acceptable to PAS. The position of PAS in this matter has been stated by its President in the Press many times.

Judging from the loyalty of Malay voters and MPs to UMNO, it will be an impossible task for Anwar to entice 14 Malay/Muslim MPs to change side. A multiple regression analysis of past election data confirm strong voter loyalty to UMNO(please see a separate article on this weblog titled ‘Analisis undi UMNO dalam pilihanraya 2008: Kajian kesetiaan Ahli Parlimen dan Pengundi’ . In addition another Muslim/Bumiputera based party PBB from Sarawak also has a strong loyalty record of its voters and Wakil Rakyat. This party with 14 MPs have actually survived defections of elected representatives twice before, after which the splinter groups quickly faded into political oblivion. Such a fate awaits any disloyal UMNO MPs.

Secondly, In view of the above scenario, and to avoid being trapped on the wrong side of the floor, MCA will not be induced to leave Barisan Nasional. Any such mistake on their part is irresponsible and will leave the Chinese community at the mercy of an almost fully Bumiputera government. Under such a situation ultra Malays in UMNO may exert more pressure within the government to push for agenda sensitive to the Chinese and other non Bumiputera communities. Such a scenario shall be detrimental to racial harmony and to our nation’s efforts towards Vision 2020. Still nothing can stop individual non Bumiputera MPs from crossing the floor to Pakatan Rakyat on emotional reasons.

Thirdly, It will be an extremely bad decision for MCA, MIC or Gerakan to leave Barisan Nasional, since such a decision is akin to acknowledgement of defeat and surrender of their lost seats forever. This is because it is hard to imagine DAP or PKR would sacrifice any of their incumbents in a fresh general election in favour of their newfound partner.

Conclusion

In view of the above scenario, if Anwar has the majority to form a government, it would be a situation where the non Malay/non Muslim members of Parliament make up the majority faction. In such a case, it is likely that PAS will leave the Pakatan Rakyat, and Anwar’s ambition of becoming the Prime Minister will remain a dream.

If PAS decides to remain with the Pakatan, Pak Lah will certainly advise the YDP Agong to call a fresh General Election.

Should a general election be held now, the Malay votes will be the deciding factor. Which party will the Malays vote this time? The answer is quite obvious, the voters will certainly punish the party that deviates from its basic principles.