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Malaysian 13th General Election (Year 2013): Prediction of Election Results

This is an  abridged Engilish version of the original article  in   Malay language written earlier today in this blog.

This prediction  model is based on  multiple regression analysis  of data in  all of the 222 parliamentary constituencies in previous elections. Several  factors have been chosen  and the data are tested as independent variables.

These factors are found to be highly significant, namely number of Malay, Chinese and  Indian voters as well as those of the natives  of  Sabah and Sarawak. Other factors include  the competing partys’ traditional influence in the constituency and the number of times the  incumbent stood in previous elections. All the above factors are found to be highly significant and  have substantial impact on the outcome of the election.

I have done  12  by-elections and  the Sarawak State Election  forecast from 2009 to  2011. All my past by-election forecasts turned out to be accurate, except one.

My forecast for the outcome of the Sarawak State election was very accurate up to the number of seats that the opposition obtained. You may access all these past forecasts in this in this blog.

In this prediction, for Peninsular Malaysia,  I estimate  that  61% of the Malay voters will vote for  Barisan Nasional, 25% of the Chinese  and  60% of the Indians . These figures provide input to the model  along side with the data on the traditional influence of the party in each constituency. In Sarawak and Sabah  a slight variation of the model is used in view of the different racial composition in these states.

The  prediction derived from the model is shown in the table below:

Peninsular BN Minimum
(seats)
BN Maximum
(seats)
BN 114 122
DAP 26 25
PKR 17 13
PAS 8 5
Total 165 165
Sabah & Sarawak
BN 46 49
DAP 8 7
PKR 2 1
PAS 0 0
Independent 1 0
Total 57 57

The above table shows that  Barisasn Nasional will, on worst case scenario, win a toal of 159 seat, DAP 35, PKR 19 and PAS 8 seats. In a best case scenario BN will win  170 seats while DAP will take 33, PKR  14 and PAS 5  seats.

In order to have 2/3 seat majority, Barisan Nasional needs  to only win 148 seats.END

DAH IKHWAN

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9 responses to “Malaysian 13th General Election (Year 2013): Prediction of Election Results

  1. Salam.. Saudara dah ikhwan mohon kalau boleh dapat senarai penuh nama parliment yg menang mengikut parti parti yg bertanding… Maaf banyak permontaan

  2. terutamanya kawasan di mana Pas dan Pkr menang…

  3. Salam Tuan, boleh berikan analisis utk Negeri Johor, berapa PAS DAP PKR dan BN.

    Penilaian saya BN Johor mungkin hilang 5 kerusi Parlimen dan sehingga 8 kerusi dun. Hampir kesemuanya kepada DAP.

  4. Saudara sudara sekalian,
    Sekarang saya sedang travelling dan tidak ada access kpd pangkalan data . Maaf ya.

  5. Safe journey.

    • Semoga saudara selamat dlm
      Pejalanan pegi n balik… Nanti jangan lupa komen laporan merdeka centre

  6. merdeka centre dan umcedel penipu dah ikhwan yang paling betul???

    • Merdeka cyr umcedel hanya ada 1000 lbh subjek analisis. Majlos professor negara subjwk lbh 10 ribu.sendiri mahu ingat mana lbh kredible lor.

  7. Hi,

    As a fellow researcher, I am very interested in your analysis. However, I have few problems regarding your regression analysis, namely what regression test do you apply (OLS or VECM or SVECM or others), quantification of qualitative data as well as sampling method.

    May you explain your method (or reference) of quantify various qualitative data such as influence of the competing parties and details of your sampling method.

    Thanks

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