Analisis dan Ulasan Keputusan PRK Hulu Selangor P.94

Keputusan rasmi  yang baru sahaja kita perolehi dari Pusat Penjumlahan Undi  ialah seperti berikut:

Calon  BN –   P. Kamalanathan——————-24,997 undi

Calon PKR –  Datuk Zaid Ibrahim  ————–23,274 undi

Majoriti  ———————————————1,725 undi

Jika dilihat daripada jumlah undi yang diperolehi oleh kedua dua calon ,  Barisan Nasional telah menang selesa dalam pilihanraya kecil ini seperti diramal dalam artikel  terdahulu.Ini berbanding dengan  kekalahan tipis sebanyak 198 undi dalam PRU 2008.

Kemenangan  memang telah dijangka, kerana  kawasan ini secara tradisi merupakan kubu kuat Barisan Nasional.  Hanya dalam Pilhanraya Umum tahun 2008, kawasan ini dirampas dengan  majoriti tipis oleh Pakatan Rakyat berikutan sentimen anti BN yang meluas  di Semenanjung Malaysia. Itupun di tiga kawasan DUN  dalam P. 94  ini, BN  masih  mampu menang selesa  sejumlah  6,176 undi keseluruhannya.

Dalam PRU 2008, nampaknya  ramai penyokong BN dalam  kawasan(P. 94)  majoriti Melayu ini telah mengundi calon Pembangkang munkin sebagai tindak balas mereka   terhadap  sikap anti Melayu pihak HINDRAF diketika itu. Sentimen perkauman yang melulu  ini telah reda selepas dua tahun berlalu, apalagi dengan penerimaan  1 Malaysia yang meluas dikalangan semua kaum.

Keputusan yang diperolehi dalam  pilihanraya kecil hari ini pula menggambarkan  perubahan sentimen bagi tiga kaum utama dalam kawasan ini.  Dianggarkan  64% undi Melayu kini menyokong BN berbanding 54%  dari  undi kaum India dan 24% undi dari kaum Cina. Memandangkan sentimen pengundi di kawasan P 94 selari dengan sentimen bagi seluruh Semenanjung, taburan peratusan di atas   boleh dikira menggambarkan  keadaan bagi seluruh Semenanjung.

Justeru, sentimen kaum Melayu dan  kaum India kini sudah memihak kepada BN. Yang menjadi persoalan  ialah mengapa  sokongan kaum Cina merosot berbanding dengan Pilihanraya tahun 2008 apabila sokongan mereka  untuk BN mencapai 39.5%? Saya yakin Dato’ Seri Najib sebagai pemimpin BN mampu menangani masalah ini.

Walau apapun, keputusan pilihanraya kecil ini juga menunjukkan sokongan rakyat untuk BN telah bertambah pada keseluruhannya. Jika pilihanraya umum diadakan kini, anggaran secara model regression  mengunjurkan Barisan Nasional mampu menang besar. Bagi Pakatan Pembangkang, mereka akan hanya mampu memenangi  kira kira 50 kerusi parlimen sahaja di Semenanjung,  berbanding dengan  80 kerusi yang mereka menangi dalam Pilihanraya Umum tahun 2008.

Samaada,  satu pilihanraya umum kini baik untuk Barisan Nasional,  saya rasa ini  bergantung kepada sentimen politik di Sarawak dan Sabah. Kesetabilan politik negara kini berkait rapat dengan kesetabilan politik di negeri negeri Borneo ini.

Sekian, wallahu  ‘alam

Assalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.

DAH IKHWAN

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11 Responses to Analisis dan Ulasan Keputusan PRK Hulu Selangor P.94

  1. Pingback: Pilihanraya Kecil Hulu Selangor P.94: Analisis Situasi dan Ramalan « DAH IKHWAN Weblog

  2. HR iskandar says:

    Dt,
    syabas,satu penilaian yang bermutu dan tepat.

  3. Mika Angel-0 says:

    DAH,

    Yang menjadi persoalan ialah mengapa sokongan kaum Cina merosot berbanding dengan Pilihanraya tahun 2008 apabila sokongan mereka untuk BN mencapai 39.5%?

    a good question. what are your thoughts and what are the solutions and the risks involved?

    i know you can do it.

    tot straaks

  4. DAH IKHWAN says:

    Saudara HR Iskandar,
    Thanks for your comments. I will always try my best to come out with a comprehensive and independent analysis.

  5. DAH IKHWAN says:

    Ms Mika Angelo,

    Dank U voor het komentrie,

    As a Malay one may easily be tempted to come out with emotional and racist comments on why the Chinese still desert Barisan Nasional. And Chinese readers may also be tempted to give equally racist answers. Such a situation is not healthy and may lead to further political instability, worst still to social instability and security issues.

    In Malaysia all races need to tolerate and help each other. There is no sense for Chinese to touch on Bumiputera rights enshrined in our Constitution or for some UMNO leaders to brag about granting of citizenships to Chinese. These are part of history and must be respected by all parties.

    The causes for dismal Chines support for BN in Hulu Selangor are complex, as described well in today’s The Star by its columnist Joceline Tan. They are less emotional when come to voting, but calculative. Many issues still affect them, such as the toppling of DAP backed government in Perak, racially sensitive comments by an UMNO Minister during election time, and many other reasons she mentioned.

    But PM Najib is tackling these issues very well. He is respected for understanding the issues and making real efforts to face it in his 1 Malaysia concept and New Economic Model. Many believed that these have created goodwill that would eventually translate into Chinese votes.

    I believe what Joceline said about Chinese is correct. They are not by nature in opposition.

    After all MCA has been a Major patner to BN for a long time. Chinese votes saved BN in 1999 election and strongly supported it in 2004 election. Even in 2008 election, there was no substantial desertion by Chinese loyalists, as about 40% were still with BN. These are facts of my research in the past.

    There is no need to handout too many financial goodies to the Chinese, as they may not need it. But it is the long term effect of Najib’s 1 Malaysia and New Economic Model that will eventually win over the Chinese heart and votes.

    Malays must be beware of calls to punish the Chinese by Malay Ultras. It can be done by cementing support from Indians and other Bumiputeras, leaving the Chinese in the opposition, without giving them any meaningful positions in the government. But it is a disasterous idea to alienate any one race as the nation need unity of all races, the basic ingredients for interracial harmony, stability and prosperity for the country. Malaysia is altready lagging behind our neighbours in economic growth and we cannot afford to prolong this misery. We need to rebulid our national pride as in Tun Mahathir era and don’t look back.

    Thanks.

  6. Mika Angel-0 says:

    DAHtje,

    Zeer knap van je.

    I still think that we need a strong MACC and an efficient LDHN to pull off vision2020.

    1Malaysia needs that Sarawak and Sabah be more ‘national’- wat zeg je?

    The NEM Part2 will be unveiled June or July?
    Aside, what will be the price of oil and palm oil for the next 3 years? Our BLR? The Ringgit?

    Hoop ik dat die niet te veel zijn voor je.

    Tot straaks, ms DAH

    ps maak je wat korreksie hebben nodig waar je die zou moeten gevonden.

  7. Mika Angel-0 says:

    Je moet mij excuseren:

    I was reading this from the bbc:
    India opposition parties strike over high food prices

    slecht! en wat jammer…

    with the increase in GDP per capita targeted in NEM what do you think will be the effective savings for the middle and low income group?

  8. Mika Angel-0 says:

    DAH,

    Belajar Bahasa Inggeris
    (ik verstaan niet cikgu)

    Moving the Chinese ground
    Analysis
    By JOCELINE TAN

    At the same time, there was also a degree of frustration amid the upbeat mood because the Chinese vote had not moved to Barisan. Only about 20% of those in Chinese-majority areas had helped Barisan’s P. Kamalanathan to win.

    “We can’t deny it. The Chinese ground has not shifted since the 2008 general election,” said Datuk Seri Dr Fong Chan Onn, who heads the MCA think-tank Insap.

    Things could have been worse. The reading shortly after nomination day was that up to 85% of the Chinese would support PKR’s Datuk Zaid Ibrahim.

    The Chinese are not born to be anti-government nor are they ungrateful for what they have.

    They have given overwhelming support to Barisan many times. In 1995, they voted for Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s leadership; in 1999, they propped him up against Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s reformasi movement; in 2004, they embraced the incoming Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

    They have always been very tactical about the power of their vote. The post-Merdeka generation especially feel they are 100% Malaysian. They do not see why they have to put up with quotas when it comes to education, job and business opportunities and even when buying homes

    There is no need to handout too many financial goodies to the Chinese, as they may not need it. But it is the long term effect of Najib’s 1 Malaysia and New Economic Model that will eventually win over the Chinese heart and votes.

    hoe lang zoud dat kunnen mogen zijn?
    een kwestie van tijd
    een kwestie van smaak
    niet waar?

    hebben wij tijd genoeg, Cikgu?
    stel ik een mogeljke toekomst maar aan, Cikgu, aub.

    Danke

  9. Mika Angel-0 says:

    DAH,

    Taal oefeningen:

    Ik hoop dat je druk bent bezig met een analyse van de tussentijdse verkiezing in Sarawak.

    Geluk maar

  10. DAH IKHWAN says:

    Mika,
    Dank U. Indeed I am doing something about the By-election in Sarawak. I will write articles on forecast and commentry on it.
    May I ask wie ben je? Uit Nederland of Vlaamse van Belgie? en ben je en Arab Muslim uit Nederland of en Malaysie?
    Sorry, I am not proficient in Dutch, I didn’t practise it for over 30 years. and I only learned simple language as my MBA course was conducted in English over 30 yrs ago.

    Shukraan Jaziilan

  11. Mika Angel-0 says:

    DAH,

    Een geestje uit Belgie die je niet bang te zijn hoef.
    Wie ik ben is niet van belang maar jouw analysis is toch, makker.

    Goede dag

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